Sunday, 11 January 2015

Weekly Update - Week Ended 9 January 2015

Market Summary and Technical 
  • S&P500 fell below 2000  in midweek but quickly rebounded on ‘buy the dip’ mentality
  • Gold again  shows strength despite dollar strength
  • FXE continues going down on expectations that QE is coming soon
  • My trend model indicates that US equities are bearish for the intermediate term while emerging markets, gold and silver indicate bullish behavior

[Market Summary]

[Trend Watch] 

[Selected Charts]

[Market Breadth] 

Readings and Trends 
  • Low oil prices trigger both demand and supply response – economics 101?
    • Demand side – higher US car sales, especially big guzzlers (FT)
    • Supply side - Rig numbers cut (FT)
  • A number of key events in the EU this January (Gavyn Davies)
    • ECJ preliminary opinion on legality of central bank bond purchases
    • ECB decision on size and type of “sovereign” QE
    • Greek elections
  • Tim Duy’s take on employment figures which showed solid job gains and decelerating wage growth
  • Spot the trend (FT)

Investment Implications and Opportunities 
  • Nobody predicting decline in S&P500 in 2015 – a warning sign? (Mish
  • Was Friday beginning of a dollar correction? Dollar ended lower despite good employment numbers

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